Lab · October 2026

Trailing drawdown explained: why winning also brings you closer to blowing the account

With the same trades, an intraday trailing account gets blown while in profit and an end-of-day one survives. We measured it across 4,000 evaluations.

With the same trader and the same $2,000 drawdown, intraday trailing passes 58% of evaluations and end-of-day trailing 63%: 4 points less just because of how it's measured.

The question

Why do some accounts get blown while in profit? Because a trailing drawdown doesn't measure how much you've lost since you started, but how far you've dropped from your best moment. And that floor moves up with you… but never comes down.

How it works

Same trades, two endings

50,00048,000trades →closed balanceend-of-day floorintraday floor
Simulated example (40 trades from a trader with a 45% win rate, +$300 / −$200). The red line is the intraday floor; the orange one, the end-of-day floor. With intraday trailing the account is blown on trade 36, with a previous closed balance of $50,205: in profit. With end-of-day trailing, the same trades are still alive.

Across 4,000 evaluations

Example trader: 45% win rate, average win $300, average loss $200, 2 trades a day (a positive average result of about $25 per trade).

025507510058%42%Intraday $2,00063%37%End of day $2,000passblown
Same drawdown ($2,000) and same target ($3,000); only when the trailing drawdown is measured changes.

With each firm's full rules (checked in their help centers in October 2026):

AccountPassBlownOut of timeSessions (median)
APEX 50K · intraday trailing17%21%62%16
APEX 50K · end-of-day trailing17%16%67%16
Lucid 50K Flex63%37%0%31
Lucid 50K Pro63%37%0%31

Since March 2026 APEX lets you choose: intraday or end-of-day trailing (the latter with a $1,000 daily loss limit), both with a $2,000 drawdown and 30 days to pass. Without that time limit, this trader would pass 58% with intraday and 63% with end of day; with the limit, most don't make it: they would need to make about $143 per session and their average is about $50. At Lucid, for this trader (two trades of $200-300 a day) neither the Flex consistency rule nor the Pro daily loss limit ever kicks in: both give the same result as the end-of-day trailing drawdown alone. With bigger days or more trades, they do matter. That's why it's worth simulating with your own numbers.

Size matters more than the strategy

0%50%100%size 0.5× · 1× · 1.5× · 2× · 3× →% pass% blown
Lucid 50K Flex (no time limit), same trader, different position size.
SizePassBlownSessions
0.5×88%13%93
1×62%38%31
1.5×50%50%15
2×46%54%10
3×36%64%6

More size shortens the road but blows many more accounts. At half size almost all of them pass… at the cost of taking twice as long or more.

What it means for your account

Try it with your trades: the free simulator does this same calculation with your stats or your NinjaTrader CSV, and shows you the size table.

How it was calculated

Our lab's evaluation engine (exact parity with our backtester, checked against NinjaTrader), Monte Carlo of 4,000 evaluations resampling trades generated from the stats shown. Each trade's favourable and adverse excursion (MFE/MAE) is generated with simple rules, so the intraday trailing effect is indicative; with your real NinjaTrader trades the real excursion is used. Example seed: 727.

Simulated and hypothetical results, with the limitations that implies. Not investment advice. Firm rules change: check them on each firm's website. This article contains no affiliate links.